Sunday, September 11, 2011

NFL Picks Week 1: It's not going to be a horny kind of day

FROM KEITH GROLLER

I've worn my Rams horns in St. Louis.

I've worn my Rams horns at our Morning Call fantasy football draft at Starters Riverport.

I've worn them on the set of Chris Michaels' RCN-4 "Sports Talk" show.

If the Rams beat the Eagles today I would wear them on the set of our own Morning Call "Calling All Sports" show this week.

But I don't think the Lehigh Valley viewing public has to worry about seeing me in my horns this week because Rams 009
the Eagles, I have a feeling, will live up to their billing for at least one week and be too much for my favorite football team to match. Hopefully, the Rams will keep it competitive for awhile and Sam Bradford will continue to show progress and not make major mistakes.

But the Rams defense is still a work-in-progress and I see the Eagles running the ball very effectively with LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick running away from the gasping Rams and making a couple of real big plays. I see the Eagles winning 38-20 and easily covering the spread.

My NFL picks last year, and I guess the year before and the year before that, have been very bad. But two trends that were good for me were picking the Eagles and picking against the Rams.

You'd think that if I just picked the teams out of a hat, I'd go at least 50-50, but I was down in the 30 percent range at one point last year.

Things have to be better.

Maybe that visit to Kelly's Irish Pub in Lansford will still be lucky for me, even if it wasn't a lucky weekend for Kelly's favorite team -- the Notre Dame Fightin' Irish. What a game, however, at the Big House.

Here we go and I dedicate these selections to my friend Rico, who I believe is spending this NFL opening weekend in my second favorite city (after St. Louis, of course), Las Vegas. I am using the betting lines from The Wynn hotel/casino in Vegas where I put a few dollars down on the Giants winning the Super back on New Year's Day 2008 and the Giants went on to win it all a month later.

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS

Pittsburgh (+1.5) 20, BALTIMORE 10 ... Under the 36. (Remember you can hear the Steelers broadcast on Z95.1 FM).

TAMPA BAY (-1.5) 27, Detroit 24 ... Over the 41.5. (Two teams headed to the playoffs?)

CHICAGO (-2.5) 30, Atlanta 20 ... Over the 40.5. (Jay Cutler stays around until the end of this one).

Buffalo 21 (+5.5), KANSAS CITY 10 ... Under the 40. (I was in Arrowhead Stadium a month ago. Nice place. Not so nice team).

HOUSTON 24 (-8.5), Indianapolis 14 .... Under the 43. (Missing Peyton is one thing, but the defense will be the problem).

Philadelphia 38 (-4), ST. LOUIS 20 ... Over the 44. (Covered this one above).

CLEVELAND 19 (-7), Cincinnati 14 ... Under the 35. (The Ohio State-Toledo game was much more interesting than this Battle of Ohio).

Tennessee (+1.5) 30, JACKSONVILLE 17 ... Over the 37. (Jack DelRio is already on the hot seat).

WASHINGTON (+3) 27, New York Giants 21 ... Over the 39 (Have a feeling the Redskins will be better than most think).

ARIZONA (-3) 24, Carolina 17 ... Over the 37 (I will be rooting for Kevin Kolb because I thought he handled things in Philly well).

SF 49ERS (-5.5) 28, Seattle 17 ... Over the 37.5 (Harbaugh got the best of Carroll in the Stanford-USC rivalry. Don't expect a hug between them after the game).

SAN DIEGO (-8.5) 24, Minnesota 14 ... Under the 41.5 (Every year, the Chargers are the chic pick for the Super Bowl and every year they disappoint).

Sunday Night

NEW YORK JETS (-5.5) 31, Dallas 17 ... Over the 40.5 (For one week, Rex is the not Ryan who looks bad).

Monday Night

MIAMI (+7) 24, New England 21 ... Over the 46. (Upset pick of the week).

DENVER (-3) 24, Oakland 17 ,,, Over the 40. (Successful debut for John Fox).

Enjoy the games. And remember, what this day is all about.

http://blogs.mcall.com/groller/

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