Friday, November 22, 2013

NFL line and betting trends: Pats have not been in this spot since 2005

http://blogs.mcall.com/groller/

FROM KEITH GROLLER


Another NFL weekend is upon us. It actually began with the Saints' win over the Falcons on Thursday, but it really gets going on Sunday with key games as the playoff race comes into focus.
Here's a look at the latest line as well as the top 16 betting trends provided by RJ Bell of Pregame.com. Remember ATS means against the spread:

NFL Lines For Week 12 - NFL Football Line Week Twelve
NFL Line 11/24 - 11/25, 2013
Date & TimeFavoriteLineUnderdogTotal
11/24 1:00 ETAt Detroit-9Tampa Bay49
11/24 1:00 ETAt Houston-10Jacksonville43.5
11/24 1:00 ETAt Green Bay-4.5Minnesota44
11/24 1:00 ETAt Kansas City-5San Diego42
11/24 1:00 ETCarolina-4.5At Miami41
11/24 1:00 ETAt Cleveland-1.5Pittsburgh40
11/24 1:00 ETAt St. Louis-1.5Chicago45.5
11/24 1:00 ETAt Baltimore-3.5NY Jets39
11/24 4:05 ETTennessee-1At Oakland41.5
11/24 4:05 ETAt Arizona-2Indianapolis45
11/24 4:25 ETAt NY Giants-2.5Dallas45.5
11/24 8:30 ETDenver-2.5At New England54
Monday Night Football Line
     
11/25 8:40 ETSan Francisco-6At Washington47
NFL: Top 16 Vegas Trends

49ers – On Monday Night Football: 37-12 ATS (76%)

Bears – Have not covered once in the last 9 games before playing Minnesota

Chiefs – Have not been favored against San Diego since 2005

Chiefs – When favored in division: 1-10 ATS

Cowboys - Underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (41-17 ATS the last 4 seasons)

Cowboys – Any team off 30+ point loss before bye: 15-4 ATS

Dolphins, Steelers – Any team following a win as a home underdog: 5-23 ATS

Lions – Any team favored the week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-33 ATS

Packers – In division: 12-2 ATS

Panthers – Covered 6 straight, beating the spread by a combined 82 points

Patriots – First time underdogs in back-to-back games since 2006

Patriots – As an underdog following a loss: 15-2 ATS

Patriots – First time home underdogs since 11/7/2005 (2938 days ago!)
There have been 708 home underdogs since. Rams have been home dogs 45 times during this span.

Patriots – Have won 35 of 38 regular season games at home

Redskins – Home underdogs on Monday Night Football have covered only 42% of the time since 2001

Steelers: Last time Pittsburgh was an underdog vs. Cleveland: 2003 (the time before that: 1994)

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