Thursday, August 29, 2013

As college football season begins, who does Vegas expect to win?

http://blogs.mcall.com/groller/

FROM KEITH GROLLER


As much as you, me and a lot of people love football season, there's a city that loves it even more.
It's Las Vegas because the action on the gridiron brings a lot of action to the sports books as Vegas remains one of the few places in the country where legal betting on the games still occurs and occurs in large numbers.
If you've ever been to Vegas on a football weekend you know that you can see the games everywhere you go and there's almost a party atmosphere at some of the sports books when the big games are being played.
RJ Bell of Pregame.com has a look at some of the favorites in college football as the season gets underway with a batch of games kicking off the season on Thursday night.
BCS Odds - Top 20:

ALABAMA
3/1
OHIO STATE
6/1
OREGON
10/1
TEXAS A&M
12/1
GEORGIA
20/1
STANFORD
20/1
LOUISVILLE
25/1
LSU
28/1
S. CAROLINA
30/1
FLORIDA ST
30/1
FLORIDA
40/1
TEXAS
40/1
NEBRASKA
40/1
OKLAHOMA
40/1
CLEMSON
45/1
OKIE ST
50/1
NOTRE DAME
50/1
MICHIGAN
50/1
USC
50/1

*** Ohio State has received over DOUBLE the money compared to any other team to win the BCS Title! (at the LVH)

Projected Wins on Season - Top 20
(in Vegas you can bet over/under the following number of wins)

ALABAMA
11
OREGON
11
OHIO STATE
10.5
LOUISVILLE
10.5
FLORIDA ST
10.0
GEORGIA
9.5
TEXAS A&M
9.5
S. CAROLINA
9.5
CLEMSON
9.5
TEXAS
9.5
STANFORD
9.5
NEBRASKA
9.5
OKLAHOMA ST
9.0
USC
9.0
MICHIGAN ST
9.0
WISCONSIN
9.0
LSU
8.5
FLORIDA
8.5
OKLAHOMA
8.5


FIVE Teams Favored in EVERY Game This Season:

Alabama (has amazingly been favored in 41 straight games entering the 2013 season!)

Ohio State
Oregon
Georgia

Louisville

Current Odds on Top 10 Biggest Games of the Year (via LVH)
Michigan -3 hosting Notre Dame

Alabama -7 at Texas A&M (only game Alabama is favored by less than double digits all season)

Notre Dame -1 hosting Oklahoma

Texas -1 vs. Oklahoma

Notre Dame -3.5 hosting USC

Georgia -4.5 hosting South Carolina (only time South Carolina are underdogs all season)

Georgia -2.5 vs. Florida (smallest favorite Georgia is all season)
Oregon -4 at Stanford (only game Oregon is favored by less than double digits all season)

Ohio State -3.5 at Michigan (only game Ohio State is favored by less than a touchdown all season)

Louisville -2.5 at Cincinnati (only game Louisville is favored by less than a touchdown all season)

Favored to win Conference

ACC: Florida St
Big 10: Ohio St
Conference USA: Marshall
MAC: Northern Illinois
Mountain West: Boise St
Pac 12: Oregon
SEC: Alabama

SEC Dominance:

In Las Vegas at William Hill, you can bet on the SEC vs. Any Other Team in Country to win the BCS Title. The SEC is a small favorite vs. the Field!

Bookmaker Ed Salmons, a college football expert, tells me that an amazing SIX SEC teams would be favored over Ohio State on a neutral field! (Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Florida, S. Carolina, LSU)

"Under the Radar" Teams the Wiseguys expect to over-perform this season:

Mississippi (BCS odds down from 500/1 down to 100/1)
Auburn (BCS odds from 1000/1 down to 200/1)

Wednesday's Johnny Manziel Suspension Announcement Effect:

BCS odds for Texas A&M improved from 18/1 to 12/1

Manziel's Heisman odds improved on average from 12/1 to 6/1

Vegas considers Manziel to be worth approximately 7 points per game.

Here's an article I wrote recently for Grantland on Manziel's Vegas value:http://es.pn/19LcG4E

Heisman odds:

Braxton Miller (Ohio State): 5/1
J. Clowney (South Carolina): 6/1
Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M): 6/1
AJ McCarron (Alabama): 12/1
Marcus Mariota (Oregon): 12/1
Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville): 12/1
Tajh Boyd (Clemson): 15/1
Aaron Murray (Georgia): 15/1
--

No comments: