Friday, January 18, 2013
Some numbers for Sunday's NFL conference title games; for amusement purposes only
http://blogs.mcall.com/groller/
FROM KEITH GROLLER
RJ Bell of Pregame.Com in Vegas has a lot of interesting facts here, including the effect that the hiring of Chip Kelly had on the odds of the Eagles winning the Super Bowl:
Vegas Facts:
Favorites in the Conference Championship game have covered 57% of the time since 1978
Favorites have covered 6 of 8 playoff games this season
2003 last time team with regular season best record (or tied for best) won Super Bowl
(Falcons and Broncos tied for best record this season)
Patriots and Bill Belichick have covered only 2 of last 10 playoff games
Matt Ryan has won 34 of 39 games at home in his career
In his playoff career, Matt Ryan has as many interceptions as touchdowns
Joe Flacco: 5 road playoff wins career
That’s more than Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Bret Favre, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning.
Those legends are a combined 13-29 on the road in the playoffs, while Flacco has won 5 out of 9.
Rob Gronkowski’s absence is valued at a half-point by Vegas
(only dozen or so non-quarterbacks in the entire NFL are worth even that much)
Last six matchups between Patriots and Ravens:
Patriots covered 3 of the 6, by a combined 5 points
Ravens covered 3 of the 6, by a combined 44 points
(meaning the Ravens exceeded expectations by 39 points in those games)
Last 118 NFL playoff games (11 seasons)
Exactly 59 games went OVER the total; Exactly 59 games went UNDER the total!
The projected combined score for this weekend’s games is exactly 100 points
(49ers/Falcons total is 49 points. Ravens/Patriots total is 51 points)
Spread History:
Since the NFL Playoff expanded to 10 team in 1978:
Falcons are the biggest home underdog of ANY #1 seed in any round of the playoffs.
Falcons are the biggest home under of any team in the Conference Championship round.
Prior 20 Conference Championship games (10 seasons)
Patriots only team favored by 9 pts or more
(other than this game, NE big favorite one other time: favored by 14.5 hosting Charges in 2008)
$100 on Ravens to advance to Super Bowl wins $330
$100 on Falcons to advance to Super Bowl wins $170
Updated Super Bowl Odds:
Patriots: $100 wins $100
49ers: $100 wins $200
Falcons: $100 wins $700
Ravens: $100 wins $800
Projected Super Bowl lines:
Patriots favored by 6 points over Falcons
49ers favored by 3.5 points over Ravens
Patriots favored by 2 points over 49ers
Falcons favored by 1 point over Ravens
AFC favored by 2.5 points over NFC
Other Football Props:
Will Manti Te’o admit to his involvement in the hoax:
67% chance NO
33% chance YES
Will Te’o still be selected in the first round:
64% chance YES
36% chance NO
Chip Kelly Effect:
Eagles odds improved from 40/1 to 25/1.
Oregon downgraded from 5/1 to 8/1
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