FROM KEITH GROLLER
I know we've had two "First Four" games the last two nights, but the true NCAA tournament begins in a few hours.
Some consider the opening Thursday of the tournament to be one of the best days on the sports calendar. It'll definitely be hopping in the Las Vegas casinos that's for sure where people will likely crowd around the sports books to place their bets and than watch the games unfold on multiple, large screens.
You can hardly go anywhere in Vegas without being near a TV screen with some sports action going on, especially during the bowl games and NCAA tournament games.
Here's a look at the Las Vegas odds and other tidbits courtesy of RJ Bell of Pregame.com
NCAA Title Favorites
(19 teams with better than 100/1 odds)
Florida 5/1
Louisville 5/1
Michigan St 6/1
Arizona 8/1
Kansas 15/1
Wichita 15/1
Virginia 15/1
Syracuse 18/1
Duke 20/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Villanova 30/1
Iowa St 30/1
Michigan 35/1
UCLA 35/1
Creighton 40/1
Kentucky 50/1
Okie St 60/1
N. Carolina 75/1
Ohio State 75/1
These 19 teams have a combined 86% chance of winning the tournament.
Any of the other 45 teams winning would pay 6/1 ($100 wins $600)
(meaning that Michigan State alone has the same chance of winning it as the 45 teams NOT listed above)
Based on the Vegas odds:
The following 5 teams (Florida, Louisville, Michigan St, Arizona, Kansas) have a combined 50% chance of winning the tournament.
The other 59 teams also have exactly a 50% combined chance of winning the tournament.
Great conversation topic: Would you rather take these 5 teams, or the entire remaining field?
How unusually good are the 4 seeds?
Combined chance to win tournament:
Any #1 seed: 31% chance
Any #2 seed: 12% chance
Any #3 seed: 12% chance
Any #4 seed: 27% chance
Two of the top three favorites to win tournament (Louisville, Michigan St) are #4 seeds.
Better chance of a #4 seed winning the title than the combined chances of the #2 and #3 seeds.
#4 seed Louisville is projected to be favored over any team they meet in the Midwest Region.
Some in Vegas would favor Louisville against any team in the country.
Since the start of last season, Louisville has been favored in 71 of 72 games (including 43 straight)!
Expected Wins throughout tournament:
#1 Seeds: over/under 11 wins
Big 10: over/under 10.5 wins
ACC: over/under 9.5 wins
#2 Seeds: over/under 8.5 wins
Big 12: over/under 8 wins
Pac 12: over/under 7.5 wins
AAC: over/under 5.5 wins
SEC: over/under 5.5 wins
Big East: over/under 5.5 wins
A10: over/under 3.5 wins
Mountain West: over/under 2.5 wins
Percentage chance:
54% chance a #14 OR #15 seeds wins at least one game ($100 wins $110 if NO)
44% chance a #13 seed wins at least one game ($100 wins $120 if YES)
38% chance that a #1 seed will win the title ($100 wins $155 if YES)
35% chance that TWO OR MORE #1 seeds will make the Final Four ($100 wins $180 if YES)
***2014 NCAA Tournament Action:
Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s more action combined than on the Super Bowl!
Less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada
Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament bracket contests!
***Perfect Bracket Odds:
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine followed by eighteen zeros!
That’s ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!
Some examples of just how big this number is:
If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.
If one bracket per second was filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed).
If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 42 years to fill out every possible bracket.
All possible brackets on normal paper would circle the globe over 21 MILLION TIMES.
All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh over 184 TRILLION TONS (that’s over 500 MILLION times more than the Empire State Building weighs)
68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 4.
*** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas!
(all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted)
FIRST ROUND picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 116
#15 seeds are 7 for 116
TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 25 of 29 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games
TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 23 of 25 years
#9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds
SECOND ROUND picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16
TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds win nearly half the time in Round Two
#12 seeds have more Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 27 of 29 years
TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 29 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen
TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round.
Only 9 of 464 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12
Sweet 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16
but only ONE (of 232) Elite 8 teams seeded worse than #11
Elite 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 23 of 29 years
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 140 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9
FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 28 years
TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began 35 years ago (1979)
only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 25 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!
Louisville 5/1
Michigan St 6/1
Arizona 8/1
Kansas 15/1
Wichita 15/1
Virginia 15/1
Syracuse 18/1
Duke 20/1
Wisconsin 25/1
Villanova 30/1
Iowa St 30/1
Michigan 35/1
UCLA 35/1
Creighton 40/1
Kentucky 50/1
Okie St 60/1
N. Carolina 75/1
Ohio State 75/1
Any of the other 45 teams winning would pay 6/1 ($100 wins $600)
(meaning that Michigan State alone has the same chance of winning it as the 45 teams NOT listed above)
Based on the Vegas odds:
The following 5 teams (Florida, Louisville, Michigan St, Arizona, Kansas) have a combined 50% chance of winning the tournament.
The other 59 teams also have exactly a 50% combined chance of winning the tournament.
Great conversation topic: Would you rather take these 5 teams, or the entire remaining field?
How unusually good are the 4 seeds?
Combined chance to win tournament:
Any #1 seed: 31% chance
Any #2 seed: 12% chance
Any #3 seed: 12% chance
Any #4 seed: 27% chance
Two of the top three favorites to win tournament (Louisville, Michigan St) are #4 seeds.
Better chance of a #4 seed winning the title than the combined chances of the #2 and #3 seeds.
#4 seed Louisville is projected to be favored over any team they meet in the Midwest Region.
Some in Vegas would favor Louisville against any team in the country.
Since the start of last season, Louisville has been favored in 71 of 72 games (including 43 straight)!
Expected Wins throughout tournament:
#1 Seeds: over/under 11 wins
Big 10: over/under 10.5 wins
ACC: over/under 9.5 wins
#2 Seeds: over/under 8.5 wins
Big 12: over/under 8 wins
Pac 12: over/under 7.5 wins
AAC: over/under 5.5 wins
SEC: over/under 5.5 wins
Big East: over/under 5.5 wins
A10: over/under 3.5 wins
Mountain West: over/under 2.5 wins
Percentage chance:
54% chance a #14 OR #15 seeds wins at least one game ($100 wins $110 if NO)
44% chance a #13 seed wins at least one game ($100 wins $120 if YES)
38% chance that a #1 seed will win the title ($100 wins $155 if YES)
35% chance that TWO OR MORE #1 seeds will make the Final Four ($100 wins $180 if YES)
***2014 NCAA Tournament Action:
Over $12 BILLION worldwide expected to be wagered on NCAA Tournament
That’s more action combined than on the Super Bowl!
Less than 1% of worldwide sports betting occurs in Nevada
Over 100 million people expected to take part in tournament bracket contests!
***Perfect Bracket Odds:
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion)
That's the number nine followed by eighteen zeros!
That’s ONE MILLION times bigger than 9 TRILLION!
Some examples of just how big this number is:
If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 42 years to fill out every possible bracket.
68 vs. 64 teams:
The calculations above assume a 64 team bracket – if expanded to consider 68 teams, multiple the figures by 4.
(all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted)
FIRST ROUND picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 116
#15 seeds are 7 for 116
TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 25 of 29 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games
TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 23 of 25 years
#9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds
SECOND ROUND picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16
TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds win nearly half the time in Round Two
#12 seeds have more Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 27 of 29 years
TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 29 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen
TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round.
Only 9 of 464 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12
Sweet 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 seeds worse than 11 have made it the Sweet 16
but only ONE (of 232) Elite 8 teams seeded worse than #11
Elite 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 23 of 29 years
TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 140 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9
FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 28 years
TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began 35 years ago (1979)
only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 25 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!
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