FROM KEITH GROLLER
RJ Bell of Pregame.com has some insights on how this Sunday's NFL games will go in regard to the line set in Las Vegas. History is being made this week as Denver is the biggest favorite in NFL history, a 27-point selection over Jacksonville.
Below you'll see the line and then RJ's trends to look for, and some other interesting tidbits entering the sixth Sunday of the NFL season:
NFL Lines For Week 6 - NFL Football Line Week Six
NFL Line 10/13 - 10/14, 2013
NFL Line 10/13 - 10/14, 2013
| Date & Time | Favorite | Line | Underdog | Total |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | At Kansas City | -9 | Oakland | 40.5 |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | Philadelphia | -1.5 | At Tampa Bay | 46 |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | Green Bay | -3 | At Baltimore | 48 |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | Detroit | -2.5 | At Cleveland | 44 |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | At Minnesota | -2.5 | Carolina | 44 |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | At Houston | -7.5 | St. Louis | 42.5 |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | At NY Jets | -2.5 | Pittsburgh | 41 |
| 10/13 1:00 ET | Cincinnati | -7 | At Buffalo | 42 |
| 10/13 4:05 ET | At Seattle | -13.5 | Tennessee | 40.5 |
| 10/13 4:05 ET | At Denver | -27 | Jacksonville | 53.5 |
| 10/13 4:25 ET | At San Francisco | -10.5 | Arizona | 41.5 |
| 10/13 4:25 ET | At New England | -2.5 | New Orleans | 50.5 |
| 10/13 8:30 ET | At Dallas | -5.5 | Washington | 53.5 |
| 10/14 8:40 ET | Indianapolis | -1.5 | At San Diego | 50 |
Bye Weeks: Atlanta, Miami
Best Vegas Trends
Bucs: last 40 home games, never once covered the spread two straight times!
Bucs: 4-16 ATS as a home underdog
Bucs, Jags, Steelers: winless teams (week 6 or later): 63% ATS (last 20 seasons)
Broncos: 13-3 ATS last 16 regular season games (won all 16 straight-up)
Chiefs: covered only 1 of last 14 hosting Raiders
Chiefs: lost 11 straight ATS when favored within the division
Cowboys: underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games the last 4 seasons
Cowboys: covered only 5 of last 21 games as a home favorite
Jets: 51-84 ATS as a home favorite (38% last 135)
Lions: 3-15 ATS as a road favorite
Packers: home team has covered 11 of last 12 Green Bay games
Patriots: won 32 of last 35 (straight-up) regular season home games
Raiders: 18-4 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent
Redskins: Coach Shanahan a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. Coach Garrett
Saints: covered 12 of last 13 regular season games under Coach Payton
Seahawks: 13-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
Seahawks: 15-4 ATS last 19 games
Biggest Favorite EVER:
Denver is favored by 27-points hosting Jacksonville on Sunday.
This is the biggest NFL favorite EVER (with reliable records extending all the way back to 1972)
Prior biggest favorite: Steelers -26 hosting Bucs (12/5/1976). Pittsburgh won 42-0.
Biggest favorite for 2007 Patriots: New England -24 hosting Eagles (11/25/2007). Pats won 31-28.
There have been 8 NFL teams favored by three touchdowns or more:
7 times the underdog covered the spread; only once hasthe favorite covered.
(here’s a detailed list of all 8 big favorites: http://bit.ly/1e6dMHA)
The projected over/under total in the Denver/Jacksonville game is 53 points
(considering both the spread and total, Vegas is projecting the game’s score to be: Denver 40, Jacksonville 13)
Denver favored by 20-points for the FIRST HALF ONLY vs. Jacksonville
Want to bet Denver to simply win the game? $66 wins $1 (Jacksonville to win: $1 wins $30)
NFL Props:
Denver going 16-0? Yes: $100 wins $500 (No = -600) – implying 16% chance
Jacksonville going 0-16? Yes: $100 wins $600 (No = -700) – implying 14% chance
31% chance Peyton Manning will NOT play past the midway point of the 3rd Quarter vs. Jacksonville ($100 wins $200 if he does NOT)
26% chance Jacksonville will lead at any point in the game against Denver ($100 wins $250 if Jax DOES lead)
21% chance that Matt Schaub throws a “pick-six” this week ($100 wins $350 if he DOES)
$1 pays off $10,000 if Jacksonville wins Super Bowl.
What if . . .
What would the Denver hosting Jacksonville odds be if the team’s switched quarterbacks?
(Chad Millman first asked this question on his podcast this week)
I reached out to multiple Las Vegas and online bookmakers, and the consensus opinion is:
Denver (with Blaine Gabbert) would be favored by 11-points hosting Jacksonville (with Peyton Manning)
Bucs: last 40 home games, never once covered the spread two straight times!
Bucs: 4-16 ATS as a home underdog
Bucs, Jags, Steelers: winless teams (week 6 or later): 63% ATS (last 20 seasons)
Broncos: 13-3 ATS last 16 regular season games (won all 16 straight-up)
Chiefs: covered only 1 of last 14 hosting Raiders
Chiefs: lost 11 straight ATS when favored within the division
Cowboys: underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games the last 4 seasons
Cowboys: covered only 5 of last 21 games as a home favorite
Jets: 51-84 ATS as a home favorite (38% last 135)
Lions: 3-15 ATS as a road favorite
Packers: home team has covered 11 of last 12 Green Bay games
Patriots: won 32 of last 35 (straight-up) regular season home games
Raiders: 18-4 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent
Redskins: Coach Shanahan a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. Coach Garrett
Saints: covered 12 of last 13 regular season games under Coach Payton
Seahawks: 13-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
Seahawks: 15-4 ATS last 19 games
Biggest Favorite EVER:
Denver is favored by 27-points hosting Jacksonville on Sunday.
This is the biggest NFL favorite EVER (with reliable records extending all the way back to 1972)
Prior biggest favorite: Steelers -26 hosting Bucs (12/5/1976). Pittsburgh won 42-0.
Biggest favorite for 2007 Patriots: New England -24 hosting Eagles (11/25/2007). Pats won 31-28.
There have been 8 NFL teams favored by three touchdowns or more:
7 times the underdog covered the spread; only once hasthe favorite covered.
(here’s a detailed list of all 8 big favorites: http://bit.ly/1e6dMHA)
The projected over/under total in the Denver/Jacksonville game is 53 points
(considering both the spread and total, Vegas is projecting the game’s score to be: Denver 40, Jacksonville 13)
Denver favored by 20-points for the FIRST HALF ONLY vs. Jacksonville
Want to bet Denver to simply win the game? $66 wins $1 (Jacksonville to win: $1 wins $30)
NFL Props:
Denver going 16-0? Yes: $100 wins $500 (No = -600) – implying 16% chance
Jacksonville going 0-16? Yes: $100 wins $600 (No = -700) – implying 14% chance
31% chance Peyton Manning will NOT play past the midway point of the 3rd Quarter vs. Jacksonville ($100 wins $200 if he does NOT)
26% chance Jacksonville will lead at any point in the game against Denver ($100 wins $250 if Jax DOES lead)
21% chance that Matt Schaub throws a “pick-six” this week ($100 wins $350 if he DOES)
$1 pays off $10,000 if Jacksonville wins Super Bowl.
What if . . .
What would the Denver hosting Jacksonville odds be if the team’s switched quarterbacks?
(Chad Millman first asked this question on his podcast this week)
I reached out to multiple Las Vegas and online bookmakers, and the consensus opinion is:
Denver (with Blaine Gabbert) would be favored by 11-points hosting Jacksonville (with Peyton Manning)
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