Philllies will win, but Reds could leave them black and blue

FROM KEITH GROLLER

Early Tuesday night I walked into the Reds clubhouse, but forgot to bring my roster sheet with me.

So, not even matching up numbers on the locker stalls helped me.

And I have to tell you that until Jim Edmonds walked into the room, Edmonds being a beloved former Cardinal, I had trouble recognizing these Reds. Make that any Red.

(Scott Rolen, who I would have recognized by the way, was a no-show, and like Elvis, he left quickly when the team's workout was over).

I know Joey Votto because he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated in late August, but he wasn't in there when I was.

Later, I figured out who these guys were and was able to match quotes with bodies.

The point is, I don't think the Phillies fans recognize these guys either, but they will by this time next week when we could be looking at a Game 5 of this NLDS.

Yes, I am predicting a five-game series between these teams. I think the Phils will win in five, but I think the Reds will give them more fits than you'd expect. I am not buying into this experience baloney. Seems to me experience didn't slow down the Marlins in winning both the 1997 and 2003 World Series and it didn't prevent Tampa from getting to the Series in 2008. Experience at this time of year is vastly overrated after you've played 162 games, many of them criticial.

And after playing in front of four sellout crowds in Philly in July, the Reds should know what to expect here. They'll see a few more twirling towels for sure, but the fans -- give them credit -- create a playoff-type atmosphere almost every day in Philly. So, the noise shouldn't be a shock to the Reds.

Although unheralded, the Reds have every bit as dangerous of a lineup as the Phillies.

They also have some tough lefties who could give the Phillies situational matchup problems.

Again, the one thing they don't have is a pitching rotation of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels and that's the difference. Those three are the key, not only to this series, but the rest of October and early November.

You can almost guarantee two of those three are going to give you great games when they pitch every time through, and in a short series, only needing three good pitching performances out of five makes your task a lot easier.

The Phillies have had another remarkable year, and in some ways, this one has been the best of all during this golden era, because of the number of injuries they have conquered.

But this team seems vulnerable offensively. These Reds don't throw the same caliber of pitching at you like the Phillies will throw at them.

However, we've seen some of the key Phillies go into major funks at different points of the season against mediocre pitching.

Better hope that doesn't happen here, and you better hope that the team's streak of winning Game 1s in these postseason series continues. The Phils have taken six straight Game 1s in the last two years. If the Reds beat Halladay tonight, this series could really get tough in a hurry, but I don't expect that to happen.

Other predictions:

The TV people have to be on their knees, begging for the Yankees to come out of the American League where there's not a sizeable, marquee media market in sight otherwise.

I can't go against Jeter, A-Rod and Mariano. Yankees in 4.

In the other series, Josh Hamilton makes the Rangers compelling, to a degree. And a gem by Cliff Lee will get some of the Philly fans fired up, especially if things don't go well at Citizens Bank Park.

I don't think either's a great team. In fact, there's not a great team in the whole AL mix. Rays in 5.

In the other National League series, Phillies fans have got to be rooting for the Braves. That's because they own Atlanta, and the Braves aren't nearly as good or healthy now as they were when they racked up that big lead in the NL East. Bobby Cox retiring is a nice storyline, but I don't think just him brings ratings.

The Giants are scary with their pitching and scare their own fans with their lack of offense. SF wins in four and sets up a Pat Burrell return to Philly for the NLCS.

http://blogs.mcall.com/groller/